Real Estate Trends: Short and Long Term Trends in Home Prices: Part 4 of 8 - How To Effectively Price Your Home For Sale

Graph 1 - Median Homes Prices in Contra Costa Counter over the last 10 years. (Quarterly)

"How Do Pricing Trends (Market Pricing Trends) Affect Home Prices?"

If you get nothing else from this post, get this: Market pricing is NEVER a function of only one variable.  While looking at trends, remember what happened with pricing and what might happen with pricing is not the only data to look at in order to establish a realistic price to list your property.

Market Pricing Trends:

What is a trend, and why do trends matter,...or do they?
A trend is "A general direction in which something is developing or changing." An analysis of trends gives buyers, sellers, and their respective agents an idea of where the market is heading. A Comparative Market Analysis is completed with the understanding that based on what happened in the past we an excellent indicator of what will happen in the future.

Graph 2 - Median Homes Prices in Contra Costa Counter over the last one year. (Monthly)

How long is a trend? A trend might be a two year period, or a two week period depending on the market.  Looking at graph 1, you can see that the last four bars; 1 year (the previous 4 quarters) is relatively stable as compared to the 9 previous years.  However, broken down into months graph 2, we see that there's been a 27% increase in median home prices: Hardly stable. Looking at one without the other could cost you!  Why the big increase in prices, then a big drop, then a rise again?  There are several reasons....OK TRILLIONS of reasons.  And the end of the day, however, simply be aware of trends and price your home accordingly.  

How to price your home if home prices are dropping?

Don't price your home at the top of the market.  This often results in what we call "Chasing the market" as the sellers is forced to drop their asking price over and over and over in order to find a buyer.  Simply pricing the home realistically would have prevented that.  I personally know of a homeowner who was offended by a particular offer...only to accept an offer 15% lower less than a year later.  That's money on the table in my book!  

How to price your home if home prices are increasing?

If trends are looking up, don't base your price on dated transactions or you'll again be leaving money on the table.  Determine your motivating factor for moving.  Do you have to sell now?  Could you list the property realistically at the top of the market and see if you get an eager buyer?  Sure!  But be realistic.  "Can't I just pull it off the market if it doesn't sell...then put it back on again later?"  Yep!  But I don't recommend it.  Multiple Listing Services show a property's listing history, and some might look back (as the market continues to change) and think, "Hmmm...why didn't this sell back then?  The price looked right."  leaving doubt in their mind.

Ultimately, be realistic.  Follow the ideas in this post and the expertise of your local area expert...and you'll do phenomenally well.

Part 3 of 8 to come!

As always, I'll leave you with this tip:

There are countless Real Estate websites online now with dozens more on the way.  These sites DO serve a purpose.  They are a wealth of data.  However, "Zestimates" and the like are solely based on just that...data, which can be close to accurate...or way, way off.  No...that house up the street didn't sell for 30% of market value!  It was probably public record of a 2nd lien that was defaulted on. These sites pull data from various sources and do a very good job at combining that data and provide a free service to it's users.  That said, their not vested.  Use your Realtor.  Use a Realtor you can trust.  If you have questions about how to find one...call me...  or just read this post.

Until next time, and thank you in advance for remembering me when the topic of real estate arises, and THANK YOU SO MUCH all the referrals.

Andy Blasquez ~ The last Realtor you'll ever need to look for.
DRE# 01826135

www.andyblasquez.com

Email me at andy.blasquez@gmail.com
Click here to reach Macky Hensel.

Please Follow me on Twitter and Re-Tweet these blogs.
Please Add me as a friend on Facebook 
Finally, please comment or ask questions.  Other readers may be wondering the same thing.  I love the feedback, critical or otherwise, and love the interaction: I love this job.

Thank you always for your support.

My Bay Area Real Estate Crystal Ball: What I'm certain will happen in 2013...maybe.

So what's actually going to happen in the Bay Area Real Estate markets in 2013.  One thing is absolutely certain, and that is the fact that it will change.  The extent to which it will change depends almost entirely on government intervention.  If there was no government intervention there would have been burst in the housing bubble.  In fact, there wouldn't have been a bubble!  That said, the government will interfere, and the pulse of our market will not truly be "free."

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Here is our "Past Behavior" with regard to Real Estate in Contra Coast County per TrendGraphix.  I doubt that these drastic and correlated trends are truly free.  They are, however, the facts...and that you can take to the bank.

For Sale and New Listings (Supply of homes for sale) decreased by 74% and 58% respectively. That, by itself, is meaningless.  However, nothing in business is truly 'by itself.' Average Sold Price and Average Price per Square Foot (a function of Supply and Demand) increased by 44% and 30% respectively. As supply goes down, price goes up.

Another variable that is affected by a drop in supply is how many days it takes for a home to be "sold." This is seen as Ave CDOM on the table above.  It stands for Average Cumulative Days on Market.  You can imagine that as supply goes down, the few homes remaining on the market (if priced reasonably) will go quickly!

So what is my "Prediction" for 2013?  Continued, unsustainable, increase in home prices.  

• More and more people will be out of the red and into the black, opening the door for more listings and purchases. 
• Builders continue to buy previously abandoned developments and land in an effort to increase inventory and meet demand. 
• Auction properties/flips will continue to dwindle as fewer and fewer homes are foreclosed upon.  
• Rent prices will stall or decrease as more and more home buyers re-enter the market after short-sale or foreclosure.
• Home Owners will leverage low interest rates in an effort to move 'up' in the market, opening up more homes for 1st time buyers.

Of course, all of this is subject to:

Interest Rates

Tax Consequences

The job market

Economic stability and security

The absence of catastrophic events.

Other than that...I'm CERTAIN!  ; )

As always, I'll leave you with little tip:

Garbage Disposals

• Never put hard-to-grind waste into the disposal (ex., chicken skins, egg shells, bones, celery or banana peels,...spoons!) - they will clog the drain.
• Run cold water down the drain for about 15 seconds before and after using the disposal to flush waste down the main line.  Just because it's past the disposal doesn't mean it's down the drain pipe.
• Turn on the disposal before adding food waste. Give it a fighting chance.  Let the disposal get up to speed before safely putting waste into it.
• Clean your disposal with warm water and a dozen pieces or ice or so.  It's the best "tip" I ever received from my plumber...after he pulled egg shells from my dishwasher vent tube.  Oops!

Until next time, and thank you in advance for remembering me when the topic of real estate arises.

Andy Blasquez ~ The last Realtor you'll ever need to look for.
DRE# 01826135

www.andyblasquez.com

Email me at andy.blasquez@gmail.com
Click here to reach Macky Hensel.

Please Follow me on Twitter and Re-Tweet these blogs.
Please Add me as a friend on Facebook 
Finally, please comment or ask questions.  Other readers may be wondering the same thing.  I love the feedback, critical or otherwise, and love the interaction: I love this job.

Thank you always for your support.

Real Estate Trends in Walnut Creek: 2012 Year in Review

Real Estate Trends in Walnut Creek, CA 

2012 Year In Review

This blog caters primarily to people interested in Real Estate Trends throughout the areas I've lived in and continue to service; Walnut Creek, Brentwood, Oakley, and Alamo, California.  However, most of the information posted on this site really applies to all markets.  If you have any questions that this content inspires, please drop me a line.  I always reply in a timely manner.  If you'd like more specific information about real property in your area, please don't hesitate to ask...

...That's why I'm here.

  

The table below simply illustrates the List Price, Sale Price, High, Low, Average, and Median Home Price for the time spanning 1/1/12 through 12/31/12.  There were 1031 homes sold in Walnut Creek during 2012.

Compared the above table to the table below; 2011, when there were 969 homes sold, with a median home price roughly $90,000 lower than in 2012.

Increase in Median Homes Price of Single Family Homes

 in Walnut Creek, CA during 2012

Below is a graph that illustrates the change in median home price of single family homes in Walnut Creek, CA during 2012.  Pretty compelling stuff!

Comprehensive Real Estate Market Data for Walnut Creek, CA 2012

The table below is a truly comprehensive view of important data as it relates to the Real Estate Market in Walnut Creek.  Looking at the chart below, you'll see a literal example of the law of supply and demand.  As inventory drops from 91 to 34 homes on the market over a 12 month period, median home prices rise from $580,000 to $735,000 over the same period of time.  You'll also note that Day on Market are reduced by more than 50%.

As stated in the header, if there's more specific information that you'd like to see, up to and including a complete Comparative Market Analysis for your own property, please drop me an e-mail or give me a call. There are several ways to reach me immediately below.

As always, I'll leave you with little tip:

A dirty air filter is the number one reason for HVAC system failure. A dirty filter restricts the air flow into your HVAC system. This restricted air flow put unnecessary load the fan motor and could, over time, burn the motor out prematurely. 

Filters are cheap and easy to replace...but no standing on roll-away bar stools to reach them, OK!!!

Until next time, and thank you in advance for remembering me when the topic of real estate arises.

Andy Blasquez ~ The last Realtor you'll ever need to look for.
DRE# 01826135

www.andyblasquez.com

Email me at andy.blasquez@gmail.com
Click here to reach Macky Hensel.

Please Follow me on Twitter and Re-Tweet these blogs.
Please Add me as a friend on Facebook 
Finally, please comment or ask questions.  Other readers may be wondering the same thing.  I love the feedback, critical or otherwise, and love the interaction: I love this job.

Thank you always for your support.

Real Estate Trends in Alamo, CA: 2012 Year in Review

This blog caters primarily to people interested in Real Estate Trends throughout the areas I've lived in and continue to service; Walnut Creek, Brentwood, Oakley, and Alamo, California.  However, most of the information posted on this site really applies to all markets.  If you have any questions that the content inspires, please drop me a line.  I'm happy to reply in a timely manner.  If you'd like more specific information about real property in your area, please don't hesitate to ask...

...That's why I'm here.

  

Real Estate Trends in Alamo, CA 

2012 Year In Review

The table below simply illustrates the List Price (LP) and Sale Price (SP) High, Low, Average, and Median for the time spanning 1/1/12 through 12/31/12.  There were 243 homes sold in Alamo in 2012.

Compared to 2011 (below) there were only 165 homes sold, with a median home price roughly 10% lower than in 2012.

Days on Market and Sales Price vs List Price

The blue line graph below illustrates the Sale Price vs List Price ratio.  For example, if a home was listed for $2m and sold for $2.1m, the ratio would be 105%.  You'll see that in Alamo, the asking price has been higher than the selling price, on average, leaving the ratio below 100%.  Simply put, on average, homes in Alamo are listed higher than the market will support.

The yellow bars indicate the Average Cumulative Days on the Market.  Keep in mind that in an smaller, more intimate market such as Alamo, one or two sellers holding out for the perfect buyer can skew these results by quite a bit.  

Comprehensive Real Estate Market Data for Alamo, CA 2012

The table below is a truly comprehensive view of important data as it relates to the Real Estate Market in Alamo, CA.  Note: Decreasing number of homes "For Sale" and the correlation between Days On Market and Median Price.

As stated in the header, if there's more specific information that you'd like to see, up to and including a complete Comparative Market Analysis for your own property, please drop me an e-mail or give me a call. There are several ways to reach me immediately below.

As always, I'll leave you with a little taste of wisdom:

“There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle.”

~ Albert Einstein

Until next time, and thank you in advance for remembering me when the topic of real estate arises.

Andy Blasquez ~ The last Realtor you'll ever need to look for.
DRE# 01826135

www.andyblasquez.com

Email me at andy.blasquez@gmail.com
Click here to reach Macky Hensel.

Please Follow me on Twitter and Re-Tweet these blogs.
Please Add me as a friend on Facebook 
Finally, please comment or ask questions.  Other readers may be wondering the same thing.  I love the feedback, critical or otherwise, and love the interaction: I love this job.

Thank you always for your support.

Near or Far, ALWAYS use a local Realtor: How Micro-Markets add to the dynamic of home pricing

Using an out of area agent could cost you a fortune!

Not long ago, a veteran Realtor and fellow blogger remarked on one of my posts.  He politely reminded me that the trends that I was sharing applied to my local market, but in the micro-climates of his area trends applied to some but not to others.  

This is absolutely and always the case.  Our nation has trends as a whole, and trends within geographic locations.  Our state of California certainly has trends, and micro-markets. But even our local markets also have sub markets; some even within the very same development.  

Why does this matter to you?  Well whether you're buying in Brentwood, Alamo, or Timbuktu, you could lose a fortune if your agent doesn't have intimate knowledge of the market that you're buying or selling in.  

I strongly recommend doing your homework and finding a Realtor you trust with local area expertise. 

For some light hearted but serious information on finding an excellent agent

enjoy these posts:  part 1, part 2

 Home prices are a function of the following variables:

• Demand or number of buyers with the ability and willingness to buy.
• The supply of properties on the market, including homes that our builders are selling prior to completed construction
• Interest rates - If a buyer can afford $2,000/mo....@ 3.5% interest, he/she may be able to purchase a home for $375k, but if interest rates go up to 5.5% the purchase price would have to drop to $290k or so.
• Speculated future values of specific properties and real estate in general
• Consumer Confidence Level
• Other less impacting factors

Let's look at the table below and compare the 1st two properties:  

• They are both in Brentwood
• Both +/- 3,800 square feet
• Both 4 bedrooms
• Build in the mid 2000's.  
• Lot sizes are within 20% of each other. 
• Both WERE in highly sought after areas

...but, for several reasons, one area held held it's value better than the other when the market turned.  An outside agent looking at these two properties might think that the discrepancy is not valid. That misinformation can and will cost you...weather buyer  or selling.

Look at the bottom two properties listed above:
You'll see the same thing.  Similar homes, but the one with only two bedrooms is listed $90,000 higher than the 3 bedroom?  In this area, and in virtually all areas throughout the world, this is common.  These local market tendencies and trends will often differentiate home values for something as seemingly benign as being on opposite sides of the same street!  Using a local area expert  is your best bet, whether you're looking to buy or sell.

If you have questions about an area you are looking to sell in, or to buy it, please click here to e-mail me.

I'll leave you with this little taste of wisdom:

" Character is the ability to follow through on a resolution long after the emotion with which it was made has passed."

 ~ Various Speakers

Until next time, and thank you in advance for remembering me when the topic of real estate arises.

Andy Blasquez ~ The last Realtor you'll ever need to look for.
DRE# 01826135

www.andyblasquez.com

Email me at andy.blasquez@gmail.com
Click here to reach Macky Hensel.

Please Follow me on Twitter and Re-Tweet these blogs.
Please Add me as a friend on Facebook 
Finally, please comment or ask questions.  Other readers may be wondering the same thing.  I love the feedback, critical or otherwise, and love the interaction: I love this job.

Thank you always for your support.

Is the Real Estate Market Getting Better?

Not if you're an investor, or looking to do your first flip!  If you're trying to buy auction properties (foreclosed homes) on the courthouse steps, the environment is like the proverbial feeding frenzy.  Lots of buyers. Very few homes.  Investors' margins are dwindling as the supply of foreclosed homes at auction continue to dry up.

However, if you're in a position to sell, you're in the strongest seller's market that I've seen in the 6 years I've been practicing real estate.  How might today's market conditions help you in your current circumstance?

"I'm upside down in my home. Should I short-sale now even though the market is going up?" 

That is a complex question that depends on a number of important circumstances, unique to each homeowner.  That said, considering that the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 applies to homes that close escrow on or before December 31st of 2012, and the limited supply of homes on the market are driving prices up quickly, I can guarantee one thing; it's definitely time to stop guessing and get the facts.  My partner, Macky Hensel, and I are truly experts at closing short sale transactions. (see our contact information below to have your questions answered).

"Should I sell my home now that I'm in the black?"

This seems like is a more cut and dry question, but this answer too depends on a number of critical factors as well.  Although we're in an excellent market to sell, home values are still well below where they had been several years back. As a rule, a down market is an excellent time to upgrade, but not an ideal time to "get out of the market." Lets look at a simplified illustration of how upgrading in this market, even though it's a seller's market, is ideal:

Imagine that you want the buy a larger house, or you'd like to move to a more convenient or sought after area, so you're selling your current residence. We'll call this property "A", which was originally purchased at $500,000, but now has an assessed value of $300,000.  This is a difference of 40% or $200,000.  One might say, "We are going to lose $200,000 if we sell." But now you'd like to purchase property "B", a home that originally sold for $800,000.  For simplicity's sake, we'll say that this property also dropped by 40%.  That puts the new purchase price at $480,000.  This is a difference of $320,000.  One might say, "We saved $320,000 when we bought."  Compound that virtual savings with the literal savings of historically low interest rates, and you may just land that home you've dreamed of...locked into a 30 year fixed rate mortgage...at or below 4%. 

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate data by YCharts

The example above is a simplified example of how to upgrade in this market. There are many variables that change the value of a given property, but this example is not unrealistic at all.  In fact, in many communities the larger, more sought after homes took the biggest hit. In other words, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

Perhaps the best thing you could take from this post is that the real estate market is simply a market; not good or bad; not better or worse.  "Is the Real Estate Market Getting Better?" By itself, it has no "quality".  Your unique circumstance; your point of view make it so.

I'll leave you with this "Taste of Wisdom" from Mark Twain:

" Always tell the truth. You'll surprise some and amaze the rest." 

Until next time.

Andy Blasquez ~ The last Realtor you'll ever need to look for.
DRE# 01826135

Click here to e-mail me.

Click here to reach Macky Hensel.


Ps. If you enjoy Social Medial, please "like" this post, Re-Tweet, etc. this blog at will.
I appreciate your support, and thank you in advance for remembering me when the topic of real estate arises.

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